Analyzing the First Week of the Rock Hall’s 2020 Online Fan Vote
The night before the 2020 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame nominees were announced, I published a blog suggesting a change to their annual online fan vote. As opposed to receiving one collective ballot from the general public, I argued the top-five winners of the fan vote instead receive a percentage of the total number of ballots received. No matter how you may feel about that proposition, I did not think much would change from previous fan votes. Well, some things did change. After the disastrous and bot-interfered 2016 fan vote, the Cleveland-based voting company Votem began overseeing the Rock Hall’s fan vote for the next three years. For the most part, everything went accordingly. While there was no prior announcement before the 2020 nominations, Google was chosen in favor of Votem for this year’s fan vote. With reports of internal conflict and an unforeseeable future ahead, Google’s takeover makes sense but I remained uncertain how this would affect the future of the fan vote.
I will admit, I found the voting process on this year’s fan vote confusing at first. As someone who has multiple Gmail accounts (e.g., work, personal, blog), I had to choose an account but it kept kicking me out before I can cast my vote. Keep in mind, I voted on the first day of the fan vote which is when the most votes are tallied. I initially gave up and figured I would try again later. When I did vote for the first time, I was shocked to discover the Hall did not have the standings readily available to the fans. As someone who believes in transparency, especially when it involves the general public, I did not like that the Hall did not release the standings for the first two days of the online fan vote. But the standings were eventually revealed and I was utterly surprised by the results so far (which will be discussed in greater detail later on). I’m enjoying how the fan vote is operating this year. There are a couple of unique features added to this year’s fan ballot worth mentioning. If you perform a Google search on any the nominees, the Rock Hall’s fan ballot is displayed at the top of the page and gives you the option to vote. I really like this feature since not everybody follows the Rock Hall and could be unaware of an artist’s current nomination. By doing this, Google is giving the general public an alternative way to discover the ballot for the first time and more importantly getting more votes in the final tally.
After a fan casts their ballot, a pop-up appears asking them if they want to share their choices on social media and/or sign up for email correspondence from the Hall when the 2020 inductees are announced in mid-January. There’s something important missing after the fans vote—the current standings of the votes. Instead of the Hall displaying the results after the fan votes, fans are forced to go to the Hall’s website and check the standings themselves. Even the placement of the standings is not readily available on the Hall’s site: fans have to click “Meet the Class” and scroll all the way down to “Check the Standings.” The Hall does not make the process easy for fans to track who’s leading the poll, but I think that’s actually a genius move on their part. If you care about an artist’s progress on the fan vote, you have to find it yourself and it’s somewhat tedious. For this reason alone, I imagine a lot of fans gave up and figured it’s not worth the trouble. It’s their loss. On a related note, I find strange, maybe even unsettling, that the Rock Hall does not want fans to go onto their site to vote. They radically altered the fan vote in a way that almost discourages fans from exploring the nominees on their site. The first two weeks of the fan vote is probably when the Hall gets the most traffic for the entire year.
Despite the numerous issues and problems of the Rock Hall’s online fan vote over the years, I still firmly believe it is the best indicator to accurately predict who will be inducted from that batch of nominees. On average, at least three of the artists finishing in the top-five of the fan vote are inducted each year. In fact, four artists from the top-five were inducted, so the online fan vote remains an important precursor to the official announcement. The rest of this blog analyzes the first full week of voting on 2020 Rock Hall fan vote with some observations and thoughts about the results so far. Instead of doing an artist-by-artist breakdown, I figured it’d be more worthwhile to analyze the current fan vote and what that could potentially mean for the big announcement in mid-January. With 2.5 months left in the fan vote and 2 million votes already counted, anything can happen and the standings appearing could change at a moment’s notice. That happened at least twice when I wrote this blog in the past two days.
Thoughts and Observations about the Current Standings of the 2020 Fan Vote
Pat Benatar’s impressive showing so far: Pat Benatar is currently sitting atop of the fan vote and could potentially become the first woman to do so. On last year’s museum-operated fan kiosk, Benatar did very well and finished in the top-five. Stevie Nicks, however, occupied the #1 slot which largely led to her nomination (and eventual induction) last year. Her first-time nomination is not all surprising given her name was brought up by the Nominating Committee last year and the sheer fact she orbited near the top-ten of this year’s museum fan kiosk. Benatar currently has a 20,000 lead over her nearest competitor The Doobie Brothers, so I think it’s safe to say Benatar will easily win this year’s fan vote. Every artist who has topped that year’s online fan vote ultimately received induction and that’s not changing this year. It’s somewhat troubling Benatar hasn’t commented on her nomination yet, but hopefully any lingering issues and problems are resolved by ceremony time and—at the very least—accepts the award in-person. Regardless, I still contend Benatar’s lead on the fan vote is a huge middle finger to the Rock Hall patriarchy and proves that the general public believes there are women deserving of a Rock Hall induction. Plain and simple, the Nominating Committee needs to wake up and get more women on next year’s ballot.
The top 3 will stay the same: The Doobie Brothers and Soundgarden are currently occupying the #2 and #3 spots respectively. Pat Benatar’s gigantic lead will likely not change, so these two bands are vying for #2. Soundgarden has a 23,000 lead over Judas Priest, who is currently #4, so the top-three will likely not change anytime soon. The gap is certainly closing between The Doobie Brothers and Soundgarden and there is only a 5,000 difference between these two bands at the moment. If I had to guess, I believe Soundgarden will eventually overtake The Doobie Brothers for second place, but only time will tell.
A tight race between #4 and #5: Depeche Mode was steadily holding the #4 slot for almost the entire first week of the fan vote, an amazing feat given their lukewarm performances on previous fan votes. Judas Priest was right behind, but the gap was closing in the Heavy Metal band’s favor. Yesterday morning Judas Priest officially took over the #4 slot which could boost their chances for induction a bit. As of this writing, Judas Priest has a 3,000 vote lead over Depeche Mode, but both bands have passionate fan bases that could shake things up. I believe Judas Priest will remain at #4 and there will be a close race between Depeche Mode and Dave Matthews Band for #5.
Depeche Mode’s breakthrough performance: New wave and 80s alternative has always been a tough sell for voters in the larger voting body as well as the online fan vote. Those acts have largely struggled and it seemed uncertain if and when that would happen. Well, The Cure finished in the top-five of last year’s fan vote and ultimately received enough votes for induction. With the doors wide open for more new wave and alternative artists of that era, Depeche Mode seemed likely to return to the ballot for the third time and this did happen. Upon seeing the standings of the fan vote, I remained unsure how Depeche Mode would fare on another classic rock-heavy ballot and I was absolutely shocked with the results—they were polling 4th for almost the entire first week. As a huge fan of Depeche Mode and an advocate for their rightful induction into the Rock Hall, this is fantastic news. I have a theory on why they are performing so well this year—their social media accounts officially acknowledged their Rock Hall nomination for the first time and I think that played a significant part in their strong showing thus far. Depeche Mode largely ignored their prior nominations probably because either (a) they were unenthused with their nominations or (b) felt an induction was unlikely. Depeche Mode’s fans are out in full force with little signs of stopping anytime soon. I will say thou: Dave Matthews Band is creeping closer towards the top-five and Depeche Mode’s fan base will need to continue the momentum to ensure these new wave icons finish in the top-five. There is also something else worth noting about Depeche Mode’s performance that bodes well for induction in the Class of 2020—they are only of three artists to finally break through to the fan vote after prior unsuccessful attempts. The Paul Butterfield Blues Band and The Zombies are the only two other artists who appeared on previous fan votes only to finish in the top-five of the fan vote in the years they were inducted (2015 and 2019 respectively). Like those two other bands, Depeche Mode’s middle-of-the-road performances on previous ballots led to a resurgence of momentum that afforded them a spot in the top-five of this year’s ballot. If Depeche Mode keeps their spot in the top-five of the fan vote, I bet they’re a virtual lock for induction next year.
Dave Matthews Band is on the cusp of the top-five: Even with heavy metal bands like Judas Priest present, Dave Matthews Band is probably the most polarizing nominee on this year’s ballot. Either you love them or hate, there’s no middle ground. For a jam band known for their devoted fan base, I find it hard to believe they aren’t in the top-five of the fan vote (at least yet). If you glimpse at the Rock Hall’s write-up on DMB, they focus on the band’s fans and commercial success than musical legacy and/or excellence. There’s still 2 ½ months left in the fan vote, so anything could happen. DMB has moved upward and is only 5,000 votes behind Depeche Mode. While I would be chagrined if DMB surpasses Depeche Mode in the final tally of the fan vote, it wouldn’t be shocked if turned out that way. Remember Depeche Mode fans—vote every day for your new wave heroes to ensure they stay in the top-five!
Motorhead and Thin Lizzy’s upward rises: Perhaps more than any artist on this year’s fan vote, Motorhead has gained the most ground and moved up the most places. They were initially near #10 spot at the beginning of the fan vote, but quickly surpassed the likes of Nine Inch Nails and Whitney Houston to occupy the #7 position. This is an impressive showing for the heavy metal icons, especially in the wake of the news that later members Phil Campbell and Mikkey Dee are added to Motorhead’s lineup. This is not only the right thing to do, but shows the Hall is willing to admit their mistake and correct them early. Similarly, Thin Lizzy is continuingly moving up on the fan vote and they are only 2,000 votes behind their nearest competitor Whitney Houston and seems likely they’ll pass her somewhere down the line.
Whitney’s strong showing: Given this ballot’s emphasis on hard rock and metal, Whitney Houston has been performing exceptionally well on this year’s fan vote. She started very strong, holding onto the #6 position for a few days before DMB replaced her. Motorhead’s sudden rise surpassed Whitney and the former will likely hold down the #7 slot for the foreseeable future. Currently occupying the #8 position, Houston is currently in the crossroads of the fan vote—not too low that her induction chances seem less likely, but she’s not exactly a lock for induction. A middle-of-the-road performance could go either way, but her chances remain strong.
Nine Inch Nails’ Downward Spiral: Perhaps more so than any artist in the history of the Rock Hall’s online fan vote, Nine Inch Nails has been the most inconsistent. When they were nominated for the Class of 2015, NIN finished second but did not get inducted in their first year of eligibility (FYE). Nominated again the following year when the bots apparently took over the fan vote, NIN performed very poorly and ultimately finishing amongst the bottom five and did not appear on another ballot for several years. Fast-forward to the 219 ceremony where Trent Reznor (who previously critiqued the Rock Hall) inducted The Cure last March, which shows the former’s willingness to please the Hall (so to speak). With Reznor open to a possible induction, I bet that played a significant factor in NIN’s reappearance on another ballot. Now back for their third nomination, NIN was initially performing just outside the top-five, orbiting around the #7 position. But their stock was fallen in the last few days and they are now sitting at #10. Maybe they can rebuild a little, but NIN has gotten lost in the shuffle.
Todd Rundgren’s Fall from Graces: What a difference a year makes. Todd Rundgren got his first Rock Hall nomination last year and most Rock Hall watchers predicted he would waltz right in (I certainly didn’t). He performed strongly on the fan vote and finished in third place, behind only Stevie Nicks and Def Leppard. He was, however, the only artist in the top-five of that year’s fan ballot not inducted. He stood a strong chance to get re-nominated for 2020, which he did. But his performance on this year’s fan ballot, however, is a different story. Rundgren is currently polling at #11, a sharp decline from last year. But why? I believe he performed well last year because that was a Classic Rock-lite ballot and he stood out from the others. When surrounded by other classic rock favorites such as Pat Benatar, The Doobie Brothers, and Thin Lizzy, Rundgren’s name has become an afterthought. His performance this year is so weak that he is not even in the top-ten and a long way from passing the 100,000 year mark as of this writing. The Notorious B.I.G., the only rapper nominated this year, is behind Rundgren with roughly a 10,000 vote difference between the two. At least Biggie isn’t in the bottom five, but he performing better than I thought he would on a hard rock-heavy ballot. Biggie’s current standing is kinda expected, but Rundgren’s performance is disappointing to say the least. Just from that alone, I think his induction chances have gone down significantly. In the aftermath of Rundgren’s continuous critiques against the Rock Hall, I’m more surprised he got a second consecutive nomination this year. If this year’s fan vote is any indictment for the big January announcement, I don’t like Rundgren’s chances.
T. Rex on the Fan Vote: T. Rex is currently polling at #12 which makes perfect sense, at least to me. Just like their glam rock contemporaries and 2019 inductees Roxy Music, T. Rex was always a much bigger deal in their native U.K. and their showing on the fan vote proves it. Here in the U.S., T. Rex is only known for the top-ten hit “Get it On (Bang a Gong).” That’s it, but a lack of consistent success here in the States isn’t and shouldn’t be a detriment to one’s Rock Hall chances. In the early 1970s, there was perhaps no bigger rock star in the U.K. than Marc Bolan. He was a constant presence on the U.K. singles charts and appeared on countless television specials (which gave his flamboyant image a visual component and greatly added to his notoriety). Despite their current standing in the bottom five of the fan vote, I still believe most Rock Hall watchers are vastly underestimating T. Rex’s induction chances this year. Virtually every British rocker in his wake cited Bolan as a source of inspiration and T. Rex’s influence is so widespread on future rock genres and styles (e.g., heavy metal, punk, new wave, alternative) that they cannot be ignored any longer. Notice how many times Bolan’s name was mentioned in Def Leppard’s video package and acceptance speech. Those comments alone foreshadowed T. Rex’s nomination this year and I’m pleased these glam rockers are finally getting their due. Don’t count out T. Rex just yet and they could easily get the most votes from the larger voting body when the all the ballots are counted.
The Bottom Three Are the Most Nominated Artists (aka, The Rock Hall’s 5+ Timers Club): For the record, I’m not surprised the bottom three consists of the most nominated artists appearing on the ballot—Kraftwerk, Rufus featuring Chaka Khan, and MC5. These artists, despite their strong qualifications for induction, have not resonated with the voters and keep getting passed over. Either they’re getting a lot of votes and getting closer to induction or the Nominating Committee is putting them on there for the hell of it. Just as Eric and Mary stated on their podcast the other day, these artists are blocking other artists in their respective subgenres (in this case, electronica, funk/modern R&B, and punk) to get nominations. If these artists aren’t resonating with the voters, try someone else. That’s what they did with alternative and new wave, which directly led to The Cure’s return to the ballot and finally get enough votes for induction. Try it with one of these subgenres and see if the results are different. As of right now, there is only an 800 vote difference between the MC5 and Rufus featuring Chaka Khan, so there is a chance the latter will fall to last place. I’m hoping Chaka and company pick up some steam, but their placement probably won’t get any better this year. Regardless, I think they have a decent shot for induction if they continue to get enough support from the voting body. I’m surprised MC5 reappeared on this year’s ballot given they finished in last place on last year’s fan vote. This alone proves the fan vote plays little significance on who the Nominating Committee picks and makes me wonder if we’ll see last-place wonders such as The Meters and Joe Tex on the ballot again. I’m happy to see Kraftwerk, Rufus featuring Chaka Khan and MC5 on the ballot again, but their chances are probably the same as they were last year: not great.
Even as I am typing the conclusion for this blog, there are a lot of changes happening on the “current standings” page on the Rock Hall’s site. Beyond the URL link changing, the Hall separated the artists in the top-five from the other artists nominated. This is a very noticeable change, especially if you’re a fan of an artist leading the pack. There are also additional reports of fans using the same email accounts to vote multiple times today. Hopefully the Rock Hall rectifies this issue and ensures fans use one email account on the same IP address once a day to ensure the integrity of the fan vote. Today’s standings did not show the total number of votes on the bottom of the screen, which is disappointing to say the least. I believe the last time I checked, roughly an hour ago, there were nearly 2 million votes cast but unsure how many votes were counted since then. Let’s hope that gets fixed soon. Before the fan vote potentially becomes the wild west once again, I wanted to explore how the fan vote is shaping up so far. The current top-five features all worthy artists and this might be the first fan vote that I genuinely like all five of the artists leading the pack. Hopefully it stays that way, not unless those Daveheads keep voting in strides.
Thoughts? Comments? Leave a message down below or follow me on Twitter @NickDBambach to continue this conversation.
