Getting the Balance Right: Predicting the 2020 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Inductees
In less than one month, the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s online fan vote ends. Although January 10th seems so far away, it’s really not with the holidays and a new year rapidly approaching. Traditionally, the fan vote has already ended and the big announcement follows quickly, both usually taking place in the second week of December. Before you know it, the official inductees will be announced in mid-January.
Charles Crossley Jr., Eric Layton , Tom Lane and Jason Voight are the only bloggers and podcast hosts to post their predictions so far. They each did a great job on their blogs and check them out if you haven’t done so already. I expect more to be published in the upcoming weeks and I honestly cannot wait to see their predictions. I will admit: I’m not as confident with this year’s predictions as I was last year. This year’s ballot is a tricky ballot to predict when there’s plenty of first-time nominees and several artists on the harder side of rock and roll. This will either be a hard rock fan’s dream come true or they’ll be very disappointed. I can see one, maybe two of those artists getting inducted, but I think that vote will split and allow other artists on the ballot to get higher tallies. I had a few pegged as shoe-ins, but struggled with the remaining spots. I’m hoping the Rock Hall inductees another batch of 7 artists this year, but I fear only 5 will comprise next year’s class (as Greg Harris mentioned in an interview a few months ago when the nominations were announced). But given the depth of this year’s ballot and a strong possibility that the votes will likely split, I predict there will be at least 6 inductees. Best case scenario, there’s 7 again but I think might be pushing it.
Before I change my mind for the millionth time, I decided to lock down my choices and this will serve as my final predictions before the big announcement next month. I’m predicting 6 inductees in the Performers category with a possible 7th if the Rock Hall decides to do another big class. Let’s sure hope they do and clear out the ever-growing logjam. I ranked the nominees in order of who I believe will get inducted next year.
Class of 2020 Predictions
The Doobie Brothers: Classic rock bands are usually a safe bet for induction once they finally appear on a ballot. One of rock’s great journeymen, The Doobie Brothers had two distinctly different eras and achieved commercial success. This is a feat very few bands could pull off and they did it so effortlessly. The shared vocal harmonies is what connects both eras and made them one of rock’s most enduring bands. With the recent announcement that Michael McDonald will be joining the Doobies for an upcoming summer tour, their induction chances are highly probable.
Pat Benatar: Beyond the Doobie Brothers, Pat Benatar is the only sure thing from this year’s crop of nominees. A symbol of female empowerment and perseverance, Benatar became a rock icon thanks to her iconic, cinematic-esque music videos and radio-friendly pop-rock anthems. With the dearth of female artists represented on this year’s ballot (once again), the sheer fact that Benatar’s songs are played on Classic Rock radio stations helps her out tremendously. She might be a heartbreaker, but this time next month she'll be a Hall of Famer.
Dave Matthews Band: Dave Matthews Band is probably this year’s most polarizing artist and that says a lot when Judas Priest is also nominated. I went back-and-forth debating whether they would be the first fan vote winner to not get inducted that same year. But despite the backlash against DMB, I think they’ll get inducted next year. Matthews is well-connected with many Hall of Famers including Carlos Santana, Neil Young, Bob Dylan, Johnny Cash, and John Mellencamp. He’s performed at several Farm Aid shows, played live shows to millions of fans and the only band to have 7 consecutive #1 albums. There’s a reason DMB maintained popularity for the last quarter-century. Their musicianship and songwriting has been praised by many of their peers including David Crosby. I may not like their music much, but DMB will get inducted whether I like it or not.
Whitney Houston: Simply put, Whitney Houston had the greatest voice of her generation and influenced virtually every Pop and R&B vocalist that followed her. She was a groundbreaking artist who was one of the first black female singers regularly played on MTV and scored a truck load of awards and #1 records. The only thing blocking Houston’s pending induction is whether the voting body believes she is “rock” enough for the Rock Hall. And yes, she is absolutely deserving of the honor. She was a versatile singer who sang in several different styles and genres including, yes, rock and roll. She’s too big of a cultural icon for the Rock Hall to ignore and she doesn’t have the same baggage and controversy as Janet Jackson did. I’d be surprised if the voters passed on her this year, especially when Clive Davis is in her corner.
Depeche Mode: With The Cure finally breaking the 80s Alternative dry spell earlier this year, Depeche Mode will likely get inducted after 3 nominations. They have a catalog of classic songs still heavily played today and remain highly influential on current Pop, EMD, and alternative music. I believe the hard rock vote will get split as Motorhead, Thin Lizzy, Judas Priest and MC5 are vying for the same votes. Depeche Mode, believe it or not, has widespread appeal amongst rock music fans including heavy metal and hard rock. Plus with more youthful voters getting added to the voting body each year, it’s not hard to imagine Depeche Mode as one of next year’s inductees. And finally, I believe—if inducted—Depeche Mode would close next year’s ceremony. Have them play a set of their hits and make “Personal Jesus” the All-Star Jam (it’s been covered by the likes of Johnny Cash, Def Leppard and Sammy Hagar).
The Notorious B.I.G.: Two months ago, I thought Biggie was a sure thing for induction. After all, he is the only representative of hip-hop and the sole FYE nominee this year. But beyond Diddy’s Instagram post telling his millions of followers to vote for the late rapper (without the link provided, of course), Biggie has gotten the least amount of buzz of this year’s nominees. This is not a good sign for induction next year, but I believe he’ll get enough votes. He is often cited as one of the most influential rappers and his two albums (only one released during his lifetime) are considered classics. Unlike his contemporary and west-coast rival 2Pac (an FYE inductee in 2017), Biggie had significantly less songs and a short stay at the top of the rap game. Although I’d rather see Outkast, Eric B. & Rakim, or A Tribe Called Quest get inducted first, the Rock Hall needs to honor the contributions of hip-hop to remain relevant. Interestingly, the Rock Hall has not gone more than 3 years at a time to induct a hip-hop and Biggie stands as good of a shot as any rapper.
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Nine Inch Nails: The next four artists are those I would consider the “wild cards,” who I could easily envision getting inducted next year. Trent Reznor is one of rock’s great visionaries who pushed the boundaries of rock music and became one of the most acclaimed artists of his generation. Although he was critical of the Rock Hall for a while, he inducted The Cure earlier this year and seemingly made amends. Reznor is in the midst of a cultural resurgence and arguably the most relevant name on this year’s ballot—Lil Nas X sampling Nine Inch Nails on “Old Town Road” (this year’s biggest hit), Miley Cyrus covering “Head Like a Hole” on Black Mirror, and Reznor’s involvemt on the HBO show Watchmen. Given the ceremony will take place in Reznor’s hometown, it would be fitting to see him inducted next year.
T. Rex: It’s shocking to think Marc Bolan isn’t already inducted into the Rock Hall. Although he died more than 4 decades ago, Bolan’s band T. Rex ushered in the glam rock movement and dominated the early 70s British music scene. In turn, T. Rex’s widespread influence shaped later hard rock, heavy metal, hair glam, and punk rock artists. I think the same voters who voted for The Zombies will gladly cast a ballot in T. Rex’s favor, but I can see their induction happening in a few years. And there’s apparently a T. Rex-Marc Bolan documentary in the works (thanks Ben Merlis!), so maybe they’ll have to gain momentum on a few more ballots. Or T. Rex could swoop right into the Rock Hall on their first nomination, just like their contemporaries Roxy Music. I can see it going either way.
Thin Lizzy: Of the hard rock artists nominated this year, I believe Thin Lizzy might have the best shot for induction. Almost every guest on Who Cares About the Rock Hall? mentioned they would vote for Thin Lizzy if given an official ballot and that speaks volumes on their enduring legacy. With their twin guitars and Phil Lynott’s poetic lyrics, Thin Lizzy influenced many future bands including HOFers Metallica, Bon Jovi, Def Leppard and Guns N’ Roses. Their very existence—Lynott was half-black, half-Irish, and featured both Catholic and Protestant members—was a political statement. Plus, it would be nice to nice the Rock Hall honor a band outside the U.S., U.K. and Canada every now and then.
Soundgarden: I originally pegged Soundgarden as one of the 2020 Rock Hall inductees. They’re sitting firmly at #4 on the fan vote and seem like the next logical grunge band to get inducted. But in the wake of the news that Chris Cornell’s widow is suing the other members of Soundgarden over unpaid royalties, maybe the Rock Hall delays their induction until tensions cool down. But tensions and preexisting drama didn’t stop the Rock Hall from inducting The Beatles, Blondie and Van Halen either. I don’t think it’s their time quite yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if they got inducted next year.
Kraftwerk: They gotta be gaining traction in the voting body. Why else would they keep coming back to these German pioneers? In short, Kraftwerk is the Rock Hall’s biggest snub and they almost single-handedly laid the foundation for all synth-based rock and roll. The voting body’s prejudice of any form of rock and roll not rooted in guitar (or other traditional “rock” instruments) is absurd and Kraftwerk’s influence increases each year. And Lord help me if the Rock Hall inducts Kraftwerk as Early Influences, you know the category meant to honor pre-rock (aka before 1954) artists, as Rock Hall CEO mentioned as a possibility on SiriusXM’s Volume a few months ago. Not only would that be wrong (on so many levels), but would continue the Rock Hall’s questionable tactics to get the people they want inducted. But then again, this is the same institution that inducted Wanda Jackson and Freddie King into the Early Influences category years ago, so that category is already a hot mess.
Motorhead: Lemmy is a rock icon and I really enjoy Motorhead’s fusion of punk and metal, but I think it’s gonna take a few more nominations to make this induction a reality. There’s clearly a wave of support for Motorhead’s Rock Hall nomination on social media, but I think there’s too many hard rock acts on the same ballot (e.g., Judas Priest, Thin Lizzy) and that hurts Motorhead’s induction chances. If those bands were not nominated, Motorhead would definitely have a better shot. Their induction will happen in the next 5-7 years.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan: Despite the Nominating Committee’s best efforts, Chaka Khan can’t seem to get inducted in any capacity. But at the same time, they’re not helping Khan get inducted when she’s on the ballot alongside the likes of Donna Summer, Janet Jackson and Whitney Houston. It’d be a bummer if R&B was not represented at next year’s ceremony, but I don’t plan on Khan getting enough votes for induction.
Judas Priest: Although they are, once again, #5 on the fan vote, I don’t like Judas Priest’s chances this year. In the wake of Alan Light’s comments that Judas Priest did terribly in the final tally a few years ago, I cannot imagine the voting body having a change of heart in such a short period of time. If it took metal bands Black Sabbath, Deep Purple and even AC/DC multiple nominations to get inducted, I don’t think Judas Priest will fare much better. And then again, Judas Priest is a very polarizing band and it doesn’t help there’s so many hard rock and metal bands on this year’s ballot.
Todd Rundgren: I didn’t like Rundgren’s chances last year and I certainly don’t like them again this year. Trent Reznor occupies the Renaissance man who constantly experimented. And unlike last year’s ballot, Rundgren is surrounded by many classic rock favorites and he’s gotten lost in the shuffle. Maybe the voters are having a hard time distinguishing Rundgren’s career as a solo artist and as a producer or Rundgren’s dismissive attitude towards the institution, but I don’t see his induction happening anytime soon.
MC5: These Detroit proto-punk pioneers finished in last place on the fan vote for the second consecutive year and that’s never a good sign for potential induction. Despite their massive influence, the MC5 will miss out on induction yet again and probably wind up on next year’s ballot.
These are the artists I believe will round out the Rock Hall’s Class of 2020:
Pat Benatar
Dave Matthews Band
Depeche Mode
The Doobie Brothers
Whitney Houston
The Notorious B.I.G.
*If there’s a 7th inductee, Nine Inch Nails*
